Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 5-1
Midtjylland vs The New Saints analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
70.1%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.8%
12%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Midtjylland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2018 |
MID
3 - 0
ACH
75%
16%
9%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2018 |
TNS
0 - 2
MID
23%
22%
55%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2018 |
VEJ
1 - 3
MID
15%
22%
63%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2018 |
MID
0 - 0
AST
67%
19%
14%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
MID
3 - 1
ESB
74%
17%
10%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2018 |
TNS
5 - 1
BAR
71%
18%
11%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2018 |
TNS
0 - 2
MID
23%
22%
55%
|
69 | 84 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2018 |
LRI
1 - 1
TNS
55%
20%
25%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2018 |
TNS
2 - 1
LRI
37%
21%
42%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Jul. 2018 |
TNS
4 - 0
SHK
45%
22%
33%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |