Q. Europa League 3rd Round Final
Global 4-4
Midtjylland vs Arka Gdynia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.2%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.4%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.7%
15.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Midtjylland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2017 |
MID
2 - 1
RAN
63%
21%
16%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2017 |
ARK
3 - 2
MID
22%
22%
56%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | -1 |
| 23 Jul. 2017 |
MID
2 - 0
SIF
60%
21%
19%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Jul. 2017 |
MID
3 - 1
FTC
52%
24%
24%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 16 Jul. 2017 |
BIF
4 - 0
MID
36%
25%
39%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Arka Gdynia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2017 |
ARK
1 - 1
PLO
49%
25%
26%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2017 |
ARK
3 - 2
MID
22%
22%
56%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | +1 |
| 21 Jul. 2017 |
SAN
0 - 0
ARK
33%
27%
41%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2017 |
ARK
2 - 0
SLA
38%
27%
35%
|
70 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
| 07 Jul. 2017 |
WAR
1 - 1
ARK
58%
22%
20%
|
69 | 78 | 9 | +1 |