UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 2-2
Midtjylland vs AEK Larnaca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.7%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.8%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.9%
14.3%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Midtjylland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
MID
1 - 1
RAN
73%
17%
10%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
GEN
2 - 1
MID
35%
26%
39%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Jun. 2022 |
MID
2 - 1
AAB
65%
19%
16%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2022 |
MID
3 - 2
OBK
66%
19%
15%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2022 |
OBK
0 - 0
MID
21%
22%
57%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
AEK Larnaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
APO
2 - 2
AEK
44%
26%
29%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2022 |
VAR
2 - 2
AEK
46%
25%
29%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
RAP
2 - 3
AEK
63%
21%
16%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2022 |
APO
0 - 1
AEK
62%
21%
17%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 May. 2022 |
AEK
2 - 0
PAF
45%
28%
27%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |