Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
54.2%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
22.5%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
1º
6º
1º
18
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
31% | 1% |
|
Next round
|
63.5% | 33% |
|
Mid-table
|
5.5% | 66% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 1
MEL
27%
25%
48%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
MEL
1 - 1
SYD
49%
25%
26%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 1
MEL
41%
25%
33%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CCM
1 - 1
MEL
58%
21%
20%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
PER
2 - 3
MEL
26%
25%
49%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Macarthur FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
MFC
4 - 3
WES
37%
25%
38%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
MFC
2 - 2
PER
56%
22%
21%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 3
MFC
43%
26%
32%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
MFC
3 - 3
WUF
53%
24%
24%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 1
MFC
52%
24%
25%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |