Mali vs Eritrea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
88.4%
Win probability
2.67
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
3%
5-0
6.1%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
<0%
+5
6.8%
4-0
11.5%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
13.1%
3-0
17.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.2%
+3
20.2%
2-0
19.3%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.9%
1-0
14.4%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
<0%
+1
19.7%
9.6%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
3.6%
2-2
0.6%
3-3
<0%
0
9.6%
2%
Win probability
0.25
Expected goals
0-1
1.3%
1-2
0.4%
2-3
0%
-1
1.8%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0%
-2
0.2%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+35%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2003 |
MLI
2 - 0
MAD
74%
17%
9%
|
77 | 63 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2003 |
ERI
0 - 2
MLI
6%
16%
78%
|
77 | 16 | 61 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2003 |
MLI
1 - 0
GUI
53%
25%
23%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 2002 |
MAR
1 - 3
MLI
68%
21%
11%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
MLI
3 - 0
SYC
83%
13%
4%
|
75 | 44 | 31 | 0 |
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2003 |
ERI
0 - 2
MLI
6%
16%
78%
|
16 | 77 | 61 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2002 |
TAN
1 - 1
ERI
86%
10%
4%
|
16 | 63 | 47 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2002 |
KEN
4 - 1
ERI
87%
10%
2%
|
16 | 71 | 55 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2002 |
ERI
2 - 1
SDN
19%
24%
58%
|
14 | 67 | 53 | +2 |
| 01 Dec. 2002 |
BDI
1 - 1
ERI
84%
11%
5%
|
14 | 52 | 38 | 0 |