AFCON Qualifying 1st Round Final
Global 2-2
Madagascar vs Uganda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
15.4%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.8%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.4%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
4%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
11%
23%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
23%
61.7%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
0-1
14.5%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.1%
0-2
12.7%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7.4%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
10.2%
0-4
3.3%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.2%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-19%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
CPV
3 - 1
MAD
72%
18%
10%
|
51 | 67 | 16 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
MAD
0 - 4
CPV
22%
27%
52%
|
53 | 69 | 16 | -2 |
| 15 Nov. 2011 |
MAD
2 - 1
EQG
29%
24%
46%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2011 |
EQG
2 - 0
MAD
55%
23%
22%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
4 - 2
MAD
69%
19%
13%
|
53 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Uganda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 2014 |
ZAM
2 - 1
UGA
54%
25%
21%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2014 |
MAR
3 - 1
UGA
66%
22%
13%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2014 |
ZIM
0 - 0
UGA
37%
27%
36%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2014 |
UGA
2 - 1
BFA
49%
25%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2014 |
UGA
3 - 0
MTN
81%
13%
6%
|
69 | 52 | 17 | +1 |