Madagascar vs Zambia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
13.8%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.8%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.4%
65.8%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
12.4%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.2%
0-3
8.2%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
12%
0-4
4.1%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.6%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2008 |
MAD
1 - 2
MOZ
23%
23%
55%
|
54 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2008 |
MAD
2 - 1
MUS
49%
24%
27%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Jul. 2008 |
MAD
1 - 1
SYC
52%
24%
25%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 2008 |
MAD
1 - 1
SWZ
46%
24%
30%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2008 |
MOZ
3 - 0
MAD
65%
20%
15%
|
54 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Zambia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2008 |
ZAM
5 - 4
ZIM
46%
27%
27%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2008 |
ZAM
1 - 0
SWZ
74%
17%
8%
|
77 | 53 | 24 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2008 |
SWZ
0 - 0
ZAM
12%
20%
68%
|
77 | 52 | 25 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2008 |
TOG
1 - 0
ZAM
29%
25%
46%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 May. 2008 |
IRN
3 - 2
ZAM
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | 0 |