Série D Brazil Quarter-finals
Global 4-4
Macaé Esporte vs Tupi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51.8%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
22.5%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Macaé Esporte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2009 |
TUP
3 - 2
MAC
44%
26%
30%
|
55 | 52 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2009 |
MAC
0 - 0
TUP
56%
24%
20%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2009 |
TUP
1 - 1
MAC
43%
26%
31%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
MAC
3 - 1
PAU
42%
27%
31%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Aug. 2009 |
PAU
0 - 0
MAC
59%
23%
19%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Tupi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2009 |
TUP
3 - 2
MAC
44%
26%
30%
|
52 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2009 |
MAC
0 - 0
TUP
56%
24%
20%
|
52 | 56 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2009 |
TUP
1 - 1
MAC
43%
26%
31%
|
53 | 57 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2009 |
TUP
4 - 2
FLU
50%
25%
25%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2009 |
FLU
1 - 1
TUP
52%
25%
23%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |