FC Lugano vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.6%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.6%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
34.4%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.5%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
7º
11º
8º
3
1º
4º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
3 | 35 |
1º
|
21% | |
|
|
6º
|
3 | 33 |
2º
|
11% | |
|
1º
|
3 | 32 |
3º
|
13% | |
|
10º
|
0 | 32 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
2º
|
3 | 32 |
5º
|
10% | |
|
3º
|
3 | 32 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
4º
|
3 | 32 |
7º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
0 | 29 |
8º
|
9.5% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 29 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
0 | 27 |
10º
|
9% | |
|
8º
|
0 | 26 |
11º
|
15% | |
|
7º
|
0 | 26 |
12º
|
22% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
40.5% | 62.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
59.5% | 37.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2025 |
LUG
0 - 0
CLU
64%
20%
16%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
LUG
2 - 0
LEO
87%
10%
3%
|
84 | 55 | 29 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2025 |
LUG
2 - 4
THU
45%
23%
32%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
LUG
2 - 1
RAP
65%
19%
16%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
LUG
1 - 1
YOB
45%
25%
31%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
THU
4 - 1
FCA
52%
22%
26%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2025 |
LUG
2 - 4
THU
45%
23%
32%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2025 |
SIO
1 - 1
THU
42%
24%
34%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
THU
3 - 4
KRI
70%
18%
12%
|
83 | 65 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2025 |
THU
1 - 0
ETO
64%
20%
16%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |