Q. Europa League Tercera Ronda Final
Global 3-2
FC Lugano vs Partizan Belgrade analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.1%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
25.3%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 3
FCL
48%
24%
28%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 1
LUG
39%
24%
38%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 1
SER
43%
25%
32%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
2 - 1
LUG
55%
21%
24%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
LUG
38%
25%
37%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
NOV
0 - 0
PAR
25%
25%
50%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 1
LUG
39%
24%
38%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
2 - 0
ZEL
70%
19%
11%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
DYN
39%
24%
37%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
JED
0 - 4
PAR
14%
23%
63%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | +1 |