UCL Qualifying Second Round Final
Global 4-6
FC Lugano vs Fenerbahçe analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
39.1%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.5%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.7%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
35.4%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 1
GCZ
57%
23%
20%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2024 |
INT
3 - 2
LUG
86%
10%
4%
|
85 | 99 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 1
PAR
43%
26%
32%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
0 - 1
FCA
72%
17%
11%
|
85 | 67 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
5 - 1
BEL
77%
16%
8%
|
85 | 63 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Fenerbahçe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
5 - 1
HUL
75%
15%
10%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
STR
0 - 4
FEN
37%
25%
38%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
0 - 1
HKS
60%
21%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
AWM
1 - 1
FEN
15%
22%
63%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2024 |
FEN
2 - 1
PET
83%
12%
5%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |