FC Lugano vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.5%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.8%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.4%
17.1%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2011 |
LOC
1 - 1
LUG
19%
23%
58%
|
66 | 52 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2011 |
LUG
3 - 1
SCB
80%
15%
5%
|
65 | 46 | 19 | +1 |
| 25 May. 2011 |
DEL
1 - 3
LUG
19%
23%
59%
|
65 | 51 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2011 |
LUG
1 - 1
WOH
64%
21%
16%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2011 |
LAU
3 - 1
LUG
42%
25%
33%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2011 |
FCA
2 - 1
STA
47%
25%
28%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2011 |
WIN
1 - 2
FCA
46%
24%
30%
|
58 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2011 |
FCL
5 - 1
FCA
77%
15%
8%
|
58 | 76 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2011 |
FCV
2 - 0
FCA
58%
22%
20%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | -1 |
| 21 May. 2011 |
FCA
2 - 1
YVE
62%
22%
17%
|
58 | 50 | 8 | +1 |