FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.2%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.6%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.5%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
34.8%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
8%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+24%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
54
2º
5º
5º
73
1º
1º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
73 | 12 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
61 | 8 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
63 | 8 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
53 | 6 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
54 | 5 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
52 | 1 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2025 |
FCL
0 - 2
LUG
42%
25%
33%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2025 |
LAU
2 - 0
LUG
44%
25%
31%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
LUG
1 - 1
STG
42%
24%
34%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2025 |
BAS
2 - 0
LUG
41%
25%
34%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2025 |
YVE
0 - 2
LUG
37%
25%
38%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2025 |
BAS
5 - 1
SER
41%
26%
33%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
BAS
3 - 2
LAU
43%
25%
32%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2025 |
BAS
5 - 0
YVE
46%
25%
29%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
ZUR
0 - 4
BAS
39%
24%
36%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2025 |
BAS
2 - 0
LUG
41%
25%
34%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |