FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.5%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.2%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
39.9%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.8%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+24%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
59
1º
8º
2º
40
6º
12º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 65 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
59 | 59 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 49 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
48 | 48 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 23 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
LUG
1 - 0
FCL
42%
25%
33%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2023 |
BOG
5 - 2
LUG
59%
20%
21%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
YVE
0 - 5
LUG
19%
23%
58%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
LUG
0 - 3
ZUR
38%
26%
37%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2023 |
BRU
2 - 0
LUG
63%
20%
17%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
STA
1 - 1
BAS
19%
21%
60%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 0
STG
38%
24%
38%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
SER
4 - 1
BAS
34%
25%
41%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
BAS
2 - 1
YVE
64%
21%
16%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2023 |
KRI
0 - 1
BAS
6%
12%
82%
|
81 | 52 | 29 | +1 |