FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
24.9%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.7%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.3%
24%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
51.1%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.4%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.6%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
+17%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
10º
3º
47
3º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions league qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 0
SER
39%
26%
35%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
BRE
0 - 4
LUG
13%
18%
69%
|
77 | 58 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
YOB
3 - 0
LUG
61%
20%
19%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
ZUR
1 - 2
LUG
53%
23%
24%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
2 - 3
STG
29%
24%
47%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2022 |
BAS
0 - 2
SBR
63%
20%
17%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
BAS
3 - 2
STG
50%
22%
28%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
22%
23%
55%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2022 |
ZAL
0 - 1
BAS
29%
24%
47%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
BAS
5 - 1
GCZ
67%
20%
13%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |