UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 4-8
Ludogorets vs Qarabağ analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.2%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.1%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
19.7%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+35%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ludogorets
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2024 |
QAR
1 - 2
LUD
45%
23%
33%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LUD
5 - 1
ARK
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
DNM
1 - 0
LUD
41%
24%
35%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
LUD
2 - 0
DNM
57%
21%
22%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
LUD
1 - 0
CSK
65%
20%
15%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Qarabağ
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
QAR
3 - 0
FCK
74%
16%
10%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2024 |
QAR
1 - 2
LUD
45%
23%
33%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
ARA
1 - 4
QAR
32%
26%
41%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | +1 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
QAR
5 - 0
LRI
51%
20%
29%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LRI
0 - 2
QAR
43%
22%
35%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | 0 |