Ludogorets III vs Ustrem Donchevo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
81.5%
Win probability
2.74
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.6%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.9%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.3%
3-0
11.8%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.9%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.2%
12.4%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
12.4%
6%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.6%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
54
3º
11º
5º
21
9º
14º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 77 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
65 | 68 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
52 | 55 |
4º
|
88.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
54 | 54 |
5º
|
88.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 25 |
10º
|
72% | |
|
11º
|
22 | 22 |
11º
|
66.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
21 | 21 |
12º
|
73.5% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 20 |
13º
|
81% | |
|
14º
|
15 | 15 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 12 |
15º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 82% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 18% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ludogorets III
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2022 |
LOR
2 - 3
LUD
5%
12%
83%
|
46 | 13 | 33 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
LUD
0 - 1
SVE
74%
16%
10%
|
47 | 39 | 8 | -1 |
| 28 May. 2022 |
BOT
1 - 4
LUD
10%
16%
74%
|
46 | 26 | 20 | +1 |
| 21 May. 2022 |
LUD
2 - 4
DUN
27%
23%
50%
|
47 | 56 | 9 | -1 |
| 15 May. 2022 |
CHE
1 - 0
LUD
49%
24%
28%
|
48 | 47 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Ustrem Donchevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2022 |
UST
0 - 1
SEP
21%
26%
53%
|
31 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
CMV
2 - 1
UST
70%
16%
14%
|
31 | 41 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2022 |
SHU
2 - 4
UST
44%
21%
35%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | +1 |
| 22 May. 2022 |
UST
0 - 2
SVE
37%
24%
39%
|
31 | 37 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2022 |
SGT
3 - 9
UST
21%
19%
60%
|
30 | 21 | 9 | +1 |