Lucena vs Calavera analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
87.2%
Win probability
3.43
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1%
7-0
1.8%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.4%
6-0
3.6%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.1%
5-0
6.3%
6-1
2.5%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
9.4%
4-0
9.2%
5-1
4.5%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
14.7%
3-0
10.8%
4-1
6.5%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.1%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.4%
8.5%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
3.9%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
8.5%
4.2%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
1.1%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.2%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 1946 |
LIN
1 - 1
LUC
64%
18%
18%
|
27 | 30 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1946 |
LUC
1 - 2
CDB
32%
23%
45%
|
28 | 46 | 18 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 1946 |
LUC
6 - 1
MER
65%
18%
18%
|
27 | 24 | 3 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 1946 |
REC
5 - 0
LUC
80%
12%
8%
|
27 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1946 |
LUC
1 - 3
RJA
33%
23%
44%
|
29 | 46 | 17 | -2 |
Matches
Calavera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 1946 |
CAL
0 - 4
REC
18%
20%
62%
|
12 | 38 | 26 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1946 |
RJA
10 - 0
CAL
89%
8%
4%
|
12 | 47 | 35 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1946 |
CAL
3 - 4
EME
27%
22%
51%
|
13 | 22 | 9 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 1946 |
EGA
4 - 0
CAL
84%
10%
6%
|
13 | 25 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1946 |
CAL
1 - 1
COR
20%
21%
59%
|
11 | 38 | 27 | +2 |