Lucena vs Arroyo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.8%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
19.1%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2013 |
ALB
2 - 0
LUC
59%
24%
17%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2013 |
LUC
0 - 0
LOR
60%
23%
17%
|
58 | 50 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2013 |
LUC
1 - 0
GUA
26%
28%
45%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2013 |
PAL
0 - 2
LUC
33%
27%
40%
|
57 | 45 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2013 |
LUC
2 - 1
ECI
54%
26%
20%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Arroyo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 2013 |
ARR
2 - 0
PAL
54%
23%
22%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2013 |
ECI
2 - 1
ARR
48%
25%
28%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2013 |
ARR
0 - 0
ALG
61%
22%
17%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2013 |
CAD
3 - 1
ARR
61%
22%
16%
|
50 | 58 | 8 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 2013 |
ARR
0 - 0
SAN
48%
25%
27%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |