LONGA '30 vs Excelsior .31 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
14.3%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10.3%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.1%
63.6%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
14.2%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26%
0-2
13%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
19.8%
0-3
7.9%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
10.9%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
4.7%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-26%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
11º
15º
14º
68
1º
8º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
68 | 68 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
2º
|
0% | |
|
2º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
48 | 48 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 40 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
35 | 35 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
35 | 35 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
34 | 34 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
33 | 33 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
30 | 30 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
29 | 29 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
15 | 15 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 100% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
LONGA '30
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
SDV
0 - 1
LON
44%
23%
33%
|
35 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
TVC
1 - 0
LON
56%
20%
24%
|
35 | 38 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
LON
0 - 3
VVS
13%
20%
68%
|
36 | 52 | 16 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
ROH
1 - 0
LON
64%
20%
16%
|
36 | 46 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
LON
0 - 1
BER
34%
26%
40%
|
37 | 43 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Excelsior .31
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
EXC
5 - 1
BUI
84%
11%
5%
|
52 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
HEI
1 - 3
EXC
15%
23%
62%
|
52 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
EXC
5 - 0
PEL
86%
10%
4%
|
52 | 30 | 22 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
MAS
0 - 3
EXC
27%
25%
48%
|
51 | 38 | 13 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
SDV
0 - 2
EXC
21%
25%
54%
|
50 | 40 | 10 | +1 |