UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 3-2
Lille vs Fenerbahçe analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.4%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.3%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
10%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
19.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
LIL
3 - 1
CEL
58%
22%
20%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
WOL
1 - 0
LIL
37%
27%
36%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
GNK
2 - 2
LIL
40%
26%
34%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2024 |
GEN
0 - 1
LIL
41%
26%
33%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
KVM
1 - 1
LIL
31%
26%
43%
|
90 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Fenerbahçe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
2 - 1
LUG
55%
21%
24%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 4
FEN
39%
26%
35%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
5 - 1
HUL
75%
15%
10%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
STR
0 - 4
FEN
37%
25%
38%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
0 - 1
HKS
60%
21%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |