African WC Qual. 1st and 2nd Round Final
Global 4-1
Libya vs Rwanda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57.9%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
24%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
18.1%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2015 |
LBY
0 - 4
MAR
27%
29%
44%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2015 |
TUN
1 - 0
LBY
65%
22%
13%
|
71 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 2
CPV
44%
27%
29%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
TAN
1 - 2
LBY
24%
27%
49%
|
71 | 57 | 14 | +1 |
| 19 Jun. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 0
TUN
23%
27%
50%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Rwanda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
RWA
0 - 1
GAB
27%
26%
47%
|
62 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
RWA
0 - 1
GHA
17%
24%
59%
|
63 | 83 | 20 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
RWA
3 - 1
ETH
43%
26%
31%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | +2 |
| 14 Jun. 2015 |
MOZ
0 - 1
RWA
46%
27%
27%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Jun. 2015 |
RWA
2 - 0
TAN
43%
27%
31%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | +1 |