Copa Sudamericana 1/16
Global 4-2
Libertad vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
45.8%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.7%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
28.9%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2015 |
SPO
0 - 2
LIB
24%
28%
48%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2015 |
DEP
1 - 1
LIB
29%
28%
43%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2015 |
LIB
2 - 1
RÑU
57%
23%
20%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
UCO
2 - 3
LIB
53%
24%
23%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 23 Aug. 2015 |
LIB
0 - 0
CCP
44%
26%
30%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2015 |
UCO
5 - 0
OHI
55%
23%
23%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2015 |
UCO
2 - 0
COB
58%
21%
20%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
UCO
3 - 1
ULC
59%
22%
19%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2015 |
COB
2 - 0
UCO
43%
24%
33%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2015 |
UNI
2 - 0
UCO
47%
24%
29%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | -1 |