Libertad vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
48.5%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.6%
2-0
9%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.7%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
25.7%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.2%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
48
1º
5º
1º
22
9º
12º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
48 | 48 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
36 | 36 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
31 | 31 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 31 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 23 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 21 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
19 | 19 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2024 |
TAC
0 - 0
LIB
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2024 |
RIV
2 - 0
LIB
63%
20%
17%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
LIB
4 - 1
AME
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 08 May. 2024 |
TAC
1 - 1
LIB
34%
26%
41%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 3
CCP
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 1
2DE
46%
27%
27%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2024 |
RAC
2 - 1
NAC
54%
24%
22%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
SPT
0 - 1
NAC
50%
25%
25%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 2
COR
25%
28%
48%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 1
LQE
45%
27%
28%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |