Copa Sudamericana 1/16
Global 4-5
Libertad vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.4%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.3%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
30.2%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2008 |
LIB
1 - 0
12O
62%
22%
16%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2008 |
DEF
2 - 1
LIB
64%
20%
16%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2008 |
CCP
0 - 0
LIB
44%
27%
29%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2008 |
LIB
1 - 1
GUA
56%
23%
20%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2008 |
SAN
1 - 2
LIB
36%
27%
37%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2008 |
DEF
0 - 0
CER
76%
16%
8%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2008 |
DEF
2 - 1
LIB
64%
20%
16%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Jun. 2008 |
DEF
0 - 0
PEÑ
53%
23%
24%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Jun. 2008 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
DEF
56%
22%
22%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2008 |
BVS
1 - 2
DEF
26%
27%
47%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |