Copa Sudamericana 1/32
Global 3-4
Libertad vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
46.9%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
28%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2007 |
LIB
2 - 1
SAN
60%
22%
17%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2007 |
LIB
3 - 1
AME
67%
21%
12%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2007 |
OLI
0 - 0
LIB
46%
27%
27%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 1
LIB
60%
22%
19%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2007 |
LIB
3 - 2
CCP
45%
26%
29%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 1
JUN
61%
22%
18%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 1
LIB
60%
22%
19%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
DEF
52%
25%
23%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 0
GRE
52%
23%
25%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2007 |
CSM
1 - 0
DEF
33%
27%
40%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | -1 |