UCL Qualifying 2nd Round Final
Global 3-0
Lech Poznań vs Sarajevo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.2%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.8%
25%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lech Poznań
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2015 |
LPO
1 - 2
POG
61%
22%
17%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2015 |
SAR
0 - 2
LPO
44%
25%
30%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2015 |
LPO
3 - 1
WAR
46%
24%
30%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2015 |
LPO
0 - 0
WIS
54%
24%
23%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2015 |
GÓR
1 - 6
LPO
37%
26%
37%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Sarajevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2015 |
SAR
0 - 2
LPO
44%
25%
30%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2015 |
RIJ
3 - 1
SAR
59%
22%
19%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2015 |
SPL
0 - 1
SAR
40%
26%
35%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2015 |
SAR
3 - 1
SLO
68%
21%
11%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2015 |
VIT
0 - 3
SAR
23%
26%
51%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |