Q. Europa League 3rd Round Final
Global 2-2
Lech Poznań vs Utrecht analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
39.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.6%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.4%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
34.1%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lech Poznań
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2017 |
LPO
5 - 1
PGL
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2017 |
UTR
0 - 0
LPO
54%
24%
22%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2017 |
PLO
1 - 0
LPO
28%
27%
46%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2017 |
LPO
2 - 0
HAU
44%
26%
30%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2017 |
LPO
0 - 0
SAN
68%
21%
11%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Utrecht
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2017 |
UTR
0 - 0
LPO
54%
24%
22%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2017 |
UTR
3 - 1
VAL
62%
22%
17%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 2017 |
UTR
1 - 1
MEP
79%
15%
6%
|
81 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2017 |
VAL
0 - 0
UTR
22%
24%
54%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2017 |
UTR
0 - 1
FKQ
64%
21%
15%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |