Aris vs Duluth analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
3.7%
Win probability
0.48
Expected goals
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.4%
3-1
0.2%
4-2
<0%
+2
0.6%
1-0
1.6%
2-1
1.1%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
3%
9.9%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
4.7%
2-2
1.6%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
9.9%
86.4%
Win probability
2.93
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
14.2%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.1%
0-3
13.8%
1-4
4.9%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
19.4%
0-4
10.1%
1-5
2.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
13.3%
0-5
5.9%
1-6
1.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
7.5%
0-6
2.9%
1-7
0.6%
2-8
0.1%
-6
3.5%
0-7
1.2%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
1.4%
0-8
0.4%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.5%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.2%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aris
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 2018 |
MEC
5 - 1
ARI
93%
5%
1%
|
9 | 38 | 29 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2018 |
SFT
6 - 1
ARI
89%
8%
3%
|
10 | 18 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Duluth
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 2018 |
DUL
0 - 2
LOU
25%
23%
53%
|
39 | 49 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2018 |
MIN
3 - 3
DUL
28%
21%
51%
|
40 | 31 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2018 |
DUL
4 - 4
DAK
77%
14%
10%
|
40 | 20 | 20 | 0 |