Junior vs Real Cartagena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
76.6%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.9%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.6%
7.8%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.9%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Junior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
JUN
3 - 1
SFE
65%
21%
14%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2009 |
JUN
2 - 3
BAR
82%
13%
5%
|
82 | 58 | 24 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2009 |
CAR
0 - 2
JUN
30%
28%
43%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2009 |
CHI
0 - 0
JUN
36%
28%
36%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2009 |
JUN
0 - 2
CAR
72%
18%
10%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Real Cartagena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2009 |
CAR
0 - 0
MIL
35%
28%
37%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
TOL
2 - 1
CAR
64%
23%
13%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2009 |
RSC
3 - 0
CAR
31%
28%
42%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2009 |
CAR
0 - 2
JUN
30%
28%
43%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Mar. 2009 |
CAR
2 - 2
QUI
44%
28%
29%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |