Instituto vs Def. Belgrano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.5%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
+3
6.4%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
15.3%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.9%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
11.2%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
27.7%
21.9%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Instituto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar. 2020 |
TIG
0 - 3
INS
69%
20%
12%
|
59 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2020 |
INS
1 - 1
BRO
50%
27%
24%
|
59 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2020 |
CHA
1 - 0
INS
36%
28%
36%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 2020 |
PAT
1 - 1
INS
64%
20%
16%
|
60 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2020 |
INS
0 - 0
RIE
51%
25%
24%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Def. Belgrano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2020 |
DEF
1 - 0
RSA
52%
27%
21%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2020 |
GIM
0 - 1
DEF
34%
33%
32%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Feb. 2020 |
DEF
0 - 2
ALB
61%
24%
15%
|
63 | 53 | 10 | -2 |
| 22 Feb. 2020 |
RAF
1 - 3
DEF
59%
25%
17%
|
62 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 15 Feb. 2020 |
DEF
2 - 0
QUI
42%
29%
29%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | +1 |