Independiente vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.6%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
15.7%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
+1
26.6%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
10.1%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
25.6%
17.9%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2017 |
IND
1 - 1
VEL
53%
26%
21%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2017 |
IND
0 - 0
SMA
58%
24%
18%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | -1 |
| 31 Jan. 2017 |
IND
0 - 0
RAC
40%
26%
34%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2017 |
IND
0 - 3
RAC
40%
26%
34%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2017 |
ATT
0 - 0
IND
40%
27%
33%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2017 |
ALI
7 - 2
AUR
48%
26%
26%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2017 |
ALI
0 - 0
UTC
47%
27%
26%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2017 |
GAR
2 - 1
ALI
46%
27%
27%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | -1 |
| 27 Feb. 2017 |
ALI
2 - 2
HUA
49%
27%
24%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2017 |
COM
0 - 2
ALI
47%
26%
28%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | +1 |