Independente SP vs São Carlos analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.4%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.7%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.5%
13.2%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun. 2023 |
MOG
1 - 1
IND
29%
26%
45%
|
38 | 25 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2023 |
ECN
1 - 2
IND
55%
25%
20%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2023 |
IND
0 - 1
GDS
33%
25%
42%
|
38 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2023 |
UNI
1 - 1
IND
76%
15%
9%
|
38 | 52 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2023 |
SAO
0 - 2
IND
34%
27%
39%
|
37 | 31 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
São Carlos
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun. 2023 |
SAO
0 - 3
ECN
23%
25%
52%
|
27 | 40 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 2023 |
GDS
2 - 0
SAO
61%
22%
17%
|
28 | 43 | 15 | -1 |
| 03 Jun. 2023 |
SAO
1 - 3
UNI
10%
16%
74%
|
29 | 51 | 22 | -1 |
| 28 May. 2023 |
MOG
0 - 0
SAO
47%
24%
30%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2023 |
SAO
0 - 2
IND
34%
27%
39%
|
31 | 37 | 6 | -2 |