Copa Paulista Semi-finals
Global 1-4
Independente SP vs Botafogo SP analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
24.6%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.9%
2-0
4%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
8%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
49.6%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
0-1
12.3%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
9.4%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.1%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.9%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2014 |
IND
3 - 0
RIO
32%
26%
41%
|
53 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2014 |
RIO
3 - 0
IND
48%
25%
27%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | -2 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
IND
3 - 1
ATL
28%
25%
48%
|
53 | 59 | 6 | +2 |
| 16 Oct. 2014 |
VOT
0 - 0
IND
47%
24%
29%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2014 |
FER
0 - 1
IND
51%
25%
24%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Botafogo SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2014 |
BOT
0 - 1
SAO
56%
23%
21%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2014 |
SAO
0 - 1
BOT
34%
27%
39%
|
63 | 61 | 2 | +1 |
| 26 Mar. 2014 |
BOT
0 - 0
ITU
45%
25%
30%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2014 |
BOT
0 - 2
SAO
23%
25%
52%
|
64 | 83 | 19 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2014 |
LIN
1 - 0
BOT
30%
25%
45%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | -1 |