Amapaense Semi-finals
Global 2-2
Independente AP vs Oratorio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
37.6%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.2%
22%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22%
40.4%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
4.3%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
12%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independente AP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
2 - 0
IAP
39%
24%
37%
|
32 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
POL
0 - 2
IAP
35%
23%
42%
|
31 | 24 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2025 |
IAP
0 - 2
TDC
32%
24%
44%
|
33 | 38 | 5 | -2 |
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
YAP
0 - 0
IAP
22%
25%
53%
|
33 | 23 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
IAP
2 - 2
CRI
34%
22%
44%
|
33 | 37 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Oratorio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
2 - 0
IAP
39%
24%
37%
|
31 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2025 |
TDC
0 - 1
ORC
51%
22%
28%
|
30 | 39 | 9 | +1 |
| 11 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
1 - 0
SAN
38%
23%
39%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
SEC
1 - 4
ORC
21%
19%
60%
|
28 | 16 | 12 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2025 |
ORC
1 - 1
POL
44%
22%
33%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | 0 |