Ilves vs VPS Vaasa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
40.9%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.2%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
34.5%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
10%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
35
1º
5º
1º
20
3º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
2º
|
35 | 45 |
1º
|
52% | |
|
1º
|
37 | 44 |
2º
|
37.5% | |
|
3º
|
32 | 40 |
3º
|
35.5% | |
|
4º
|
31 | 38 |
4º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 35 |
5º
|
62% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 28 |
6º
|
51.5% | |
|
7º
|
20 | 27 |
7º
|
31.5% | |
|
10º
|
16 | 23 |
8º
|
23.5% | |
|
9º
|
16 | 21 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 21 |
10º
|
23% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 20 |
11º
|
21% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 19 |
12º
|
33% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 55.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 44.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ilves
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul. 2025 |
SHA
6 - 0
ILV
61%
20%
19%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
SEI
1 - 1
ILV
48%
25%
28%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2025 |
ILV
2 - 1
KOO
63%
20%
17%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
HAK
0 - 4
ILV
41%
26%
34%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
ILV
2 - 3
SEI
45%
25%
30%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
VPS Vaasa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
VAA
0 - 2
HJK
42%
26%
32%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2025 |
VAA
1 - 2
HAK
48%
25%
27%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
OUL
2 - 1
VAA
27%
25%
49%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2025 |
VAA
0 - 0
GNI
47%
25%
28%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
IFK
1 - 5
VAA
19%
23%
58%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |