UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 3-2
HJK Helsinki vs Larne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
55.4%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
21.8%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.8%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
HJK
0 - 1
FCL
76%
17%
7%
|
77 | 58 | 19 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
HON
1 - 1
HJK
31%
28%
41%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2023 |
HAK
1 - 1
HJK
25%
27%
49%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2023 |
HJK
1 - 0
KOO
73%
18%
10%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2023 |
FCL
1 - 2
HJK
15%
25%
60%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Larne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jul. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 4
LAR
17%
21%
62%
|
71 | 53 | 18 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
LAR
0 - 2
CRU
38%
25%
37%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 27 Jun. 2023 |
BAN
0 - 6
LAR
24%
23%
53%
|
72 | 58 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
LAR
2 - 0
HAV
61%
21%
18%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2023 |
LAR
8 - 0
HAR
71%
18%
11%
|
71 | 54 | 17 | +1 |