Q. Europa League First Round Final
Global 3-1
HJK Helsinki vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.8%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
13.6%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul. 2017 |
INT
1 - 1
HJK
29%
27%
44%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2017 |
CON
1 - 0
HJK
23%
23%
53%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | -1 |
| 22 Jun. 2017 |
HJK
2 - 0
IFK
59%
22%
18%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2017 |
KUO
0 - 2
HJK
29%
27%
44%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2017 |
HJK
4 - 0
JJK
75%
16%
8%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 2017 |
CON
1 - 0
HJK
23%
23%
53%
|
67 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2017 |
STJ
2 - 0
CON
56%
24%
20%
|
67 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2017 |
CAR
0 - 0
CON
27%
26%
47%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2017 |
CON
2 - 0
BAL
37%
26%
37%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 2017 |
TNS
1 - 0
CON
72%
17%
11%
|
68 | 81 | 13 | -2 |