Guatemala First Division Apertura Final
Global 6-4
Heredia vs Nueva Concepción analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.4%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.6%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.6%
20%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-29%
+23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heredia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec. 2015 |
NUE
2 - 2
HER
37%
25%
38%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
HER
1 - 1
AUR
71%
17%
12%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2015 |
AUR
0 - 1
HER
28%
27%
45%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | +1 |
| 29 Nov. 2015 |
HER
2 - 0
MIX
65%
19%
16%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2015 |
MIX
1 - 0
HER
34%
25%
41%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Nueva Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec. 2015 |
NUE
2 - 2
HER
37%
25%
38%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2015 |
NUE
3 - 0
DEP
47%
24%
29%
|
49 | 50 | 1 | +1 |
| 02 Dec. 2015 |
DEP
2 - 0
NUE
32%
24%
44%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Nov. 2015 |
NUE
4 - 1
SAY
50%
24%
26%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Nov. 2015 |
SAY
1 - 0
NUE
30%
24%
46%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | -1 |