Copa del Rey 1/32
Global 3-4
Hércules vs Celta analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
59.5%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
18.4%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.2%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hércules
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 1979 |
SPO
2 - 0
HER
74%
16%
10%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1979 |
HER
3 - 0
VCF
40%
28%
31%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1979 |
CEL
2 - 0
HER
38%
26%
36%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1979 |
HER
2 - 0
CEL
60%
24%
15%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1978 |
RAC
0 - 2
HER
59%
24%
18%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Celta
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 1979 |
ATM
4 - 0
CEL
82%
12%
6%
|
73 | 86 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1979 |
CEL
1 - 1
SPO
33%
30%
37%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1979 |
CEL
2 - 0
HER
38%
26%
36%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 1979 |
HER
2 - 0
CEL
60%
24%
15%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1978 |
REC
1 - 2
CEL
55%
25%
20%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |