Hercílio Luz vs Caxias Joinville FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.4%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.3%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.6%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
61.3%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
10.6%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.8%
0-3
6.9%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.8%
0-4
3.4%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.9%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.8%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2012 |
XVO
1 - 2
HER
35%
26%
40%
|
43 | 37 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2012 |
IMB
1 - 1
HER
50%
24%
26%
|
43 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2012 |
HER
1 - 1
38%
25%
37%
|
43 | 46 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
TUB
3 - 0
HER
55%
23%
23%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Aug. 2012 |
HER
0 - 1
GUA
37%
24%
39%
|
45 | 48 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Caxias Joinville FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2012 |
CAX
1 - 2
GUA
67%
19%
14%
|
62 | 50 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
XVO
1 - 0
CAX
13%
19%
68%
|
62 | 36 | 26 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
CAX
0 - 4
JUV
73%
17%
10%
|
63 | 45 | 18 | -1 |
| 12 Aug. 2012 |
IMB
0 - 0
CAX
17%
21%
62%
|
63 | 46 | 17 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2012 |
CAX
1 - 1
POR
80%
14%
6%
|
63 | 29 | 34 | 0 |