Hercílio Luz vs Caxias Joinville FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.3%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
4%
2-1
3.2%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
8.2%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.2%
70.4%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
12.7%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.3%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.8%
0-4
5.1%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.9%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hercílio Luz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 2011 |
XVO
2 - 0
HER
19%
22%
59%
|
46 | 21 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2011 |
HER
3 - 1
HER
62%
22%
16%
|
47 | 59 | 12 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2011 |
HER
1 - 0
HER
25%
23%
52%
|
46 | 59 | 13 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
JUV
1 - 0
HER
46%
24%
30%
|
46 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2011 |
HER
3 - 0
JUV
41%
24%
36%
|
45 | 47 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Caxias Joinville FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 2011 |
CAX
0 - 1
GUA
78%
14%
8%
|
70 | 50 | 20 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
XVO
2 - 1
CAX
8%
16%
77%
|
70 | 20 | 50 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2011 |
CAX
0 - 0
JUV
82%
13%
6%
|
71 | 45 | 26 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2011 |
HER
1 - 0
CAX
22%
23%
55%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2011 |
CAX
2 - 2
POR
87%
10%
3%
|
71 | 27 | 44 | 0 |