Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
50.5%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.4%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
24.9%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2008 |
VIT
2 - 0
HER
59%
23%
19%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2008 |
HER
1 - 0
BOS
39%
25%
37%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 2008 |
HER
2 - 0
SPA
43%
25%
33%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Dec. 2007 |
AZA
1 - 0
HER
77%
16%
8%
|
64 | 85 | 21 | -1 |
| 27 Dec. 2007 |
HER
1 - 0
WIL
50%
25%
25%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2008 |
EXC
2 - 1
FEY
19%
22%
59%
|
61 | 85 | 24 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2008 |
RJC
3 - 0
EXC
74%
16%
9%
|
62 | 79 | 17 | -1 |
| 12 Jan. 2008 |
GRO
3 - 2
EXC
66%
21%
13%
|
62 | 78 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2007 |
EXC
1 - 2
RJC
30%
26%
44%
|
63 | 79 | 16 | -1 |
| 27 Dec. 2007 |
UTR
4 - 1
EXC
64%
21%
15%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |