Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.5%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
23.9%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2004 |
MVV
2 - 2
HER
18%
22%
59%
|
73 | 49 | 24 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2004 |
EIN
0 - 1
HER
22%
23%
54%
|
73 | 55 | 18 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2004 |
FCO
1 - 2
HER
29%
24%
48%
|
72 | 57 | 15 | +1 |
| 20 Feb. 2004 |
HER
3 - 0
TEL
69%
19%
13%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2004 |
FCE
1 - 3
HER
45%
25%
29%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2004 |
EXC
3 - 0
FCO
72%
17%
11%
|
70 | 57 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2004 |
EXC
3 - 3
EIN
74%
16%
10%
|
70 | 55 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2004 |
MVV
1 - 2
EXC
20%
22%
58%
|
70 | 50 | 20 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2004 |
TEL
0 - 1
EXC
33%
25%
43%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Feb. 2004 |
EXC
3 - 1
APE
75%
16%
10%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |