Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51.9%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
23%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1986 |
SPA
6 - 1
HER
79%
13%
8%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1986 |
HER
0 - 0
TWE
47%
26%
28%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | +1 |
| 23 Mar. 1986 |
BOS
4 - 0
HER
63%
21%
15%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 1986 |
HER
2 - 2
HFC
47%
25%
28%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1986 |
AJA
7 - 0
HER
94%
4%
2%
|
65 | 88 | 23 | -1 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1986 |
EXC
0 - 0
VVV
49%
26%
25%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1986 |
GRO
2 - 0
EXC
73%
16%
11%
|
65 | 75 | 10 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 1986 |
EXC
1 - 0
MVV
56%
25%
19%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 1986 |
EXC
3 - 0
NEC
61%
24%
16%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 1986 |
EXC
0 - 1
PSV
15%
23%
63%
|
64 | 88 | 24 | -1 |