Hennef 05 vs Fortuna Köln II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
47.3%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
28.8%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-53%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
7º
12º
9º
36
6º
15º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
65 | 69 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 64 |
2º
|
83.5% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 62 |
3º
|
60% | |
|
4º
|
55 | 61 |
4º
|
62% | |
|
5º
|
52 | 58 |
5º
|
84% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 45 |
6º
|
97% | |
|
|
7º
|
36 | 42 |
7º
|
78.5% | |
|
8º
|
34 | 38 |
8º
|
39% | |
|
|
10º
|
32 | 38 |
9º
|
36% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 37 |
10º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
32 | 36 |
11º
|
36.5% | |
|
12º
|
31 | 35 |
12º
|
47.5% | |
|
13º
|
23 | 27 |
13º
|
61.5% | |
|
14º
|
23 | 27 |
14º
|
63% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 21 |
15º
|
74% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 14 |
16º
|
76% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
64% | 97.5% |
|
Relegation
|
36% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hennef 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
SPV
1 - 2
H05
17%
18%
65%
|
40 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
H05
0 - 2
HUR
71%
17%
13%
|
41 | 29 | 12 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
GET
1 - 2
H05
10%
15%
75%
|
40 | 22 | 18 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
H05
2 - 0
KON
47%
21%
32%
|
39 | 38 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
SVE
4 - 1
H05
54%
22%
24%
|
41 | 47 | 6 | -2 |
Matches
Fortuna Köln II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
SCF
0 - 2
BSC
29%
25%
46%
|
40 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
BFR
0 - 0
SCF
25%
21%
54%
|
39 | 33 | 6 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
USC
2 - 0
SCF
20%
19%
61%
|
41 | 28 | 13 | -2 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
SCF
1 - 0
SPF
47%
24%
29%
|
41 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
HIL
1 - 3
SCF
56%
22%
23%
|
40 | 48 | 8 | +1 |