HB Køge vs Aarhus Fremad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
31.9%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.2%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.7%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
41.9%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
10.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
2º
11º
11º
1
5º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
10º
|
0 | 43 |
1º
|
44.5% | |
|
3º
|
3 | 38 |
2º
|
17% | |
|
4º
|
3 | 38 |
3º
|
16% | |
|
2º
|
3 | 36 |
4º
|
15.5% | |
|
11º
|
0 | 32 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
1 | 30 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
1 | 30 |
7º
|
12% | |
|
6º
|
1 | 30 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
5º
|
1 | 24 |
9º
|
10% | |
|
9º
|
0 | 23 |
10º
|
16% | |
|
|
1º
|
3 | 23 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 20 |
12º
|
25.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
22.5% | 43% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
77.5% | 57% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
HB Køge
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2025 |
HBK
2 - 0
HOB
39%
26%
35%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
HBK
4 - 0
VEN
38%
23%
39%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | +1 |
| 08 Jul. 2025 |
HVI
4 - 2
HBK
55%
23%
23%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | -1 |
| 05 Jul. 2025 |
HBK
5 - 0
MID
33%
25%
42%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
HBK
0 - 3
B93
35%
22%
43%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Aarhus Fremad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 2025 |
ACH
0 - 0
AAF
43%
26%
31%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2025 |
SIF
1 - 3
AAF
67%
19%
14%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
AAF
1 - 1
BFR
64%
21%
15%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
SKI
1 - 1
AAF
18%
23%
60%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2025 |
AAF
0 - 0
MID
51%
25%
24%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |