Harju JK Laagri vs Vaprus Pärnu analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
70.2%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.8%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
11.3%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
15
3º
10º
7º
23
4º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 75 |
1º
|
63.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 72 |
2º
|
37.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
36% | |
|
4º
|
38 | 63 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 60 |
5º
|
57.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
23 | 42 |
6º
|
49.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
15 | 39 |
7º
|
33% | |
|
7º
|
19 | 35 |
8º
|
38% | |
|
9º
|
14 | 30 |
9º
|
39% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 28 |
10º
|
58% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
85.5% | 94% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
12.5% | 5.5% |
|
Relegation
|
2% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Harju JK Laagri
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2025 |
FLO
4 - 1
HJP
47%
24%
30%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
HJP
4 - 1
TAM
64%
20%
16%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
HJP
1 - 2
PAI
45%
25%
30%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2025 |
KAL
3 - 0
HJP
49%
23%
28%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
PAR
1 - 1
HJP
29%
23%
49%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2025 |
PAR
1 - 2
TRA
36%
26%
38%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
KUR
1 - 0
PAR
49%
25%
26%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
PAR
2 - 2
TAL
47%
23%
30%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2025 |
PAI
1 - 0
PAR
71%
19%
11%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
PAR
1 - 1
HJP
29%
23%
49%
|
65 | 73 | 8 | 0 |