UCL Qualifying First Round Final
Global 2-2
Hamrun Spartans vs Zalgiris Vilnius analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
21.6%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.9%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.8%
1-0
5%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.3%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
56.7%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.1%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
17.3%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.7%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Hamrun Spartans
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2025 |
ZAL
2 - 0
HAM
61%
21%
18%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2025 |
HAM
1 - 2
HIB
37%
24%
39%
|
70 | 69 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
HAM
1 - 0
BIR
44%
28%
28%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2025 |
FLO
0 - 0
HAM
40%
28%
32%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2025 |
MAR
0 - 1
HAM
47%
25%
28%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Zalgiris Vilnius
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2025 |
ZAL
2 - 0
HAM
61%
21%
18%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2025 |
ZAL
1 - 0
BAN
54%
24%
22%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2025 |
PAN
2 - 4
ZAL
37%
27%
35%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2025 |
ZAL
0 - 1
HLI
40%
25%
35%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2025 |
SUD
2 - 2
ZAL
31%
29%
40%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |