Série C Brazil Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Guaratinguetá vs Caxias do Sul analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
54.9%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
+1
26.4%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
10.3%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
26.1%
19%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaratinguetá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2009 |
GUA
2 - 1
BOA
54%
25%
22%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2009 |
MIX
2 - 0
GUA
22%
27%
51%
|
69 | 50 | 19 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 2009 |
GAM
1 - 2
GUA
38%
28%
34%
|
68 | 61 | 7 | +1 |
| 11 Jul. 2009 |
GUA
2 - 0
AMF
62%
23%
16%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | +3 |
| 27 Jun. 2009 |
GUA
5 - 2
GAM
53%
24%
22%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | +2 |
Matches
Caxias do Sul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2009 |
CAX
4 - 1
MAR
69%
20%
12%
|
66 | 54 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2009 |
CRI
0 - 1
CAX
59%
22%
18%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | +1 |
| 19 Jul. 2009 |
CAX
1 - 1
MAR
36%
27%
38%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2009 |
BRA
1 - 0
CAX
26%
28%
46%
|
64 | 50 | 14 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 2009 |
MAR
2 - 0
CAX
58%
24%
19%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | 0 |